Equal Housing Opportunity
AV News Briefs - By Frank Donato
 

Frank Donato is a long time Valley Resident and Businessman, and a V.P. Account Manager for Fidelity National Title. Frank currently serves as A.V.E.K. Water Board Director (since 1987), and has served as A.V. Fair Director (1997-2001) and North County General Plan Advisory Council Member (1981-1986). Frank is also a Wine Grape Grower and Consultant and Owner/Partner of Antelope Valley Winery. We thank Frank for sharing his knowledge and unique perspective on current issues!
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Second Quarter 2003 AV News Briefs: April May June
April 2003 - AV News Briefs:

New West Palmdale Master Plan Project Breaking Ground in May

Anaverde LLC will begin construction on 441 new homes on their Anaverde development by May of this year. Ground breaking will take place on May 8th, with the first homes being completed by the 2nd Q of next year. The Anaverde development, formerly named City Ranch, is a joint venture by KB Homes (51%) and Empire Land (49%). Anaverde is located in SW Palmdale, near 20th St West & Ave S. Empire Land has extensive experience in master planned projects and will manage the project.

In it's entirety, the Anaverde development entails 1,985 acres, which includes 5,000 + homes, a 10 acre park, 2 elementary schools, a middle school, 30 acres of commercial, and hiking and biking trails. Early on, the park will be 5 acres, with it being expanded later, with an Olympic sized pool. The ground breaking in May will include lot sizes of 4,500, 5,000, and 7,000 sq feet in size, with the project's home prices starting at $155,000 and ranging up to $340,000. In later phases, lot sizes will range up to 27,000 sq feet. The ground breaking in May will be the first of 441 homes, with plans for a total of 1,400. Ave S will be widened to 6 lanes, which will include a 14 foot wide landscaped median. Anaverde is contiguous to, and just east of, Ritter Ranch, a 10,000 + acre master-planned community, which is currently in bankruptcy court, going through financial reorganization. It is anticipated that Anaverde LLC will sell off portions of the mapped project to other homebuilders, accounting for the balance of the home sites. Anaverde's boundaries are: 20th St West to 40th St West, and Ave S on the south to Elizabeth Lake Rd on the north.

A federal judge has canceled the March 31st sale of Ritter Ranch. Saying she wanted "the sale to be fair to all parties concerned", the judge reset a new date of May 28th for the attorneys of all parties to present their new reorganization plan to the judge.
An investor in the LA area is putting together a start-up company called Air Palmdale. His goal is to restart commercial air service in the AV at the Palmdale Air Terminal. $10M in venture capital is needed to get it going. The planned routes are Sacramento, San Jose, Phoenix, Oakland, and Las Vegas. He plans to build a financial base by getting local businessmen to pledge a portion of their travel to his airlines. Called "travel banking", this has been successful at the Wichita and Tallahassee airports. The business plan calls for Air Palmdale to use 50 seat Canadair regional jets and contract out operational services to existing regional airlines.
Palmdale School District has broken ground on the second of four new elementary schools. The new school will be located near the NW corner of Division St and Ave R. The third and fourth new schools will break ground in June and late summer.
Long time homebuilder in the AV, Andy Eliopulos, has not yet had his apartment project in the Rancho Vista area approved by the City of Palmdale. On March 26th, for the 4th time, the City delayed a final decision on the approval of his 90-unit project. Originally approved by the City in mid 2002, homeowners in the area appealed on the grounds the project would negatively impact traffic, noise, and crime. The next public hearing on the apartment project is April 7th. The land in question is zoned for apartments via the Rancho Vista Master Plan, which gives Eliopulos the right to build this project. The City though, will have the say as to the project's final scale, size, and appearance. Eventually, the apartments will be located at the NWC of Rancho Vista Blvd and Ave O-8.
Kaiser Permanente has opened up its new 47,000 sq ft medical office in east Palmdale. Begun one year ago, the new medical office is located at 4502 E. Ave S. Kaiser has been in the AV for 33 years and says they service 77,000 clients in the AV. Palmdale has 40,000 of those 77,000, so the decision to build a facility in Palmdale was an easy one. The medical office will have a total staff of 120.
The Antelope Valley Board of Trade, in early April, made their annual visit to Washington DC to pitch the AV to govt. leaders. The visit is intended for AV leaders to learn what issues are facing the military and defense industry. Board members will also talk with Boeing, Lockheed Martin, and Northrop Grumman officials. Board members will also be lobbying for Plant 42 and Edwards Air Force Base as another round of base closures are due in 2005. The visit was coordinated through Cong. Buck McKeon's office and is the 20th year AVBOT has visited the capital.
Pandera Bread Co., a current stock market favorite, will open up one of its restaurants by the end of the year at the new Amargosa Commons commercial center, on 10th St West, south of Rancho Vista Blvd. Pandera Bread Co. focuses on specialty bread and cafe restaurants and has 478 sites in 32 states. It offers casual dining that diner's say is much better than fast food. The Commons will also house T. J. Maxx, Dress Barn, Bed, Bath, & Beyond, Shoe Pavilion, Circuit City, and PetsMart, In total, these stores encompass 185,000 sq feet.
An underground telephone cable is being laid from 47th W and Ave J, west to 50th St West, then south to Ave K, over 1 mile in all. The telephone cable is on the south side of Ave J, and the east side of 50th St West.
Bob Toone and Jim Gilley, City Managers of Palmdale and Lancaster respectively, gave very positive talks on their cities' growth to the AV Board of Realtors during the first week of April.

At the meeting, Toone said that it is a "rumor" that Robinson's-May is looking around Palmdale for a site. Toone also said that the new west Palmdale hospital, on paper, has grown from 120 beds to 250. Toone added, that a Trader Joe's is also being actively recruited by Palmdale. Toone closed by saying that Palmdale had 15-20 housing tracts currently being mapped.

Gilley discussed the new 600-acre training center for police and firefighters in the Fox Field area, which they hope, over time, will be anchoring hotels, restaurants, and other service businesses. Police, sheriff, fire, and federal personnel from the entire SW would train there. Gilley said that the county hospital, High Desert on 60th St West, would be closing, with the beds moving to the new west Palmdale hospital. High Desert could reopen as a nursing home or health facility for the State Prison, which is next door. In the Lancaster Business Park, Countrywide Credit is building another 800 employee loan service center. Gilley also revealed, that the old Sears site, at the SWC of 10th St West & Ave K, is finally able to be sold. The site is raw, as the old Sears building has been razed. Gilley said that several major retailers have expressed an interest.

Housing Market:

Lancaster, which had a slow start in this new construction-housing boom, is catching up quickly. In Lancaster, Jan 03 building permits, vs. Jan 02 building permits, were up 260%, going from 28 in Jan 02 to 101 permits in Jan 03. Both Palmdale and Lancaster officials feel they have controlled growth on the drawing board with no danger of outgrowing their infrastructure.
Here are a few housing projects I may not have mentioned previously. First Pacifica Development of Redlands is building their first project in Lancaster, at 17th St East and Ave J. Forecast Homes is building on 20th St West, north of Ave I, and Western Pacific Housing has their 169-lot tract on Ave J, at 47th St West, going great guns. American Premiere will build 126 homes in the area of 40th St West and Ave J-10.
Land Market:
Supply closed out March at 1,808, rising a bit from February, but remaining in the range it has maintained for the past 12 months. No doubt, the stronger real estate market, with rising prices in some areas, has brought out new supply. Some sellers have been waiting 10 years for this stronger market so they could unload a position. One often hears that timing does not matter, that it is time in the market that matters. One only need look at the market action since 1990 to know that "timing" in investing, is everything. The difference between salad and garbage is timing. Timing here, looks very good to me, as careful buying of land has a good chance of showing a meaningful profit sooner than most would think plausible.

Demand: March produced 101 land sales, even topping February's very strong month. The last two months of land sales, in terms of volume (the number of sales), have been the strongest two-month period since January 1992, when I began tracking this number. Looking back one year, March of last year (2002) only produced 37 land sales. Based on volume numbers, I make this market about one year old now. Land sales volume began this strong move in April of 2002 (see below). Presently, the land market is gaining momentum and showing increasing strength. April, after only 4 calendar days,
has already produced 26 MLS land sales.

Summary/Forecast:
The housing market and land market are both showing a lot of power and strength. The land market, which lags the housing market, at both ends of the cycle, is now playing catch-up. For the discriminating buyer, there are still good buys, but it is getting tougher to find them. There are a few sectors of our market that investors have ignored, and they, on a historical basis, offer good value. It seems like every week a new face shows up in our valley, seeking to build homes. With interest rates about to go lower, the environment for real estate could hardly be better. Several west side tracts are sold out, waiting for the next phase to be offered up, which will be at higher prices. Make no mistake about it; real estate in the AV is in a rising price environment.
- Frank Donato, April/2003
Information presented above has been compiled from reputable sources, and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. All opinions expressed are those of the Author.
 
May 2003 - AV News Briefs:

Announced at 10:30am May 6th, 2003...Trader Joes is coming to Palmdale in November 2003 ! Their building, a new store in the Amargosa Commons (a new commercial center on 10th St West, south of Rancho Vista Blvd) is progressing and should be opened by the holiday shopping season, around Thanksgiving. The following retailers are already signed up for the Commons: TJ Maxx, Dress Barn, Bed, Bath, & Beyond, Shoe Pavilion, Panera Bread, Petsmart, and Rubio's Baja Grill.
Going against the advice of their attorney's, three out of five Palmdale City Council members have announced they intend to vote against the new apartment complex in the Rancho Vista area of west Palmdale. Siding with homeowners in the area, the three say they have concerns re: traffic safety and overall quality of life for the area. The 3 council members, Mike Dispenza, Richard Loa, Rick Norris were unconvinced by the studies and facts presented by developer, Andrew Eliopulos, that the project would meet all state requirements. The project had already been approved by the planning commission last August. The site in question is master-planned for apartments. The other two members of the City Council, including the Mayor, believe the city would lose in a legal challenge, costing the city perhaps as much as $2M.
Los Angeles World Airports, after finding a bankruptcy clause in their lease agreement with SR Technics, has terminated their lease with the bankrupt aircraft maintenance firm. LAWA now owns the land and improvements, which are substantial: two hangars of approx 1M sq feet each, fabrication, administration, and classroom buildings, an aircraft ramp, and a parking lot for 2,000 cars. Replacement cost of these improvements is estimated at $80M. Referred to as site 9, Plant 42, it was originally developed by Rockwell International, which built the B1 Bomber there. LAWA is seeking a military or commercial maintenance overhaul and repair company for the site.
The Cal Dept of Conservation has released new maps detailing areas they say are potentially at risk due to liquefaction during an earthquake. The Dept has been working on the maps for 8 years. Lancaster's draft maps were released on Feb 14 and are being studied by the City. The Dept of Conservation's concerns are based on the water table rising to just 40 feet below the surface, an absurd assumption. The only way that could even possibly happen would be for 75% of the AV's population to leave and reduce the demand for water. Of course, just the opposite is happening. This is just another ridiculous hurdle for homebuilders to jump over, further raising the price of their finished product. The "map" is a work in progress and nothing is final yet.
The new Sam's Club, now under construction at 10th St West and Ave O-8, just north of the AV Mall, is slated to be completed by September or October of this year.
California CEO, a monthly trade journal for California executives, has named Lancaster one of California's best 20 cities in which to do business. In the Feb, the Cal CEO highlighted Lancaster's favorable business environment, low land prices, and "incentives nearly impossible to pass up".
April 22nd, the City of Palmdale broke ground on their long awaited travel center. The travel center, which will be located on 6th St East & Ave P-12, will include a metro-link station, a transfer facility for bus riders, and a park and ride. Palmdale officials hope the center will evolve into THE transportation hub of the AV, and help jump-start the return of commercial air service at the Palmdale Regional Airport. August of 2004 is the tentative completion date.
The Lancaster City Council has approved of the sale of 28.54 acres of land for the new National Guard Armory, near Fox Airfield, to the state of California for $1,048,000 (.84 cents psf). The armory will be located on 45th St West and William Barnes Ave, which is north of Ave G.
The City of Palmdale has approved of two new commercial projects in the Trade & Commerce Center- an 30,000 sq ft office building and an 18,000 Hyundai auto showroom. The Hyundai dealership is paying $6 psf for the land, but he is being allowed to pay for the land out of future revenues. The office building appears to be being built on "spec" with no announced tenants yet. The Trade & Commerce Center is located in west Palmdale, in the area of 5th St West to 10th St West, and Ave Q, north of Palmdale Blvd. Developed in the late 1980's, in total, the Trade & Commerce Center consists of 598 acres with much of the land still vacant, waiting for the better market conditions, which now have arrived. The City also says they are in negotiations for the construction of a hotel and 1,000 seat convention center in the Trade Center.

Another hotel chain is coming to Palmdale. The Hampton Inn, part of Hilton Hotels Corp, will break ground in about 3 months, and be located on 4 acres just south of Rancho Vista Blvd, near the Fwy 14, next to Funland USA. This location is just east of the Marketplace shopping center. The hotel will be 85 rooms and be geared for the business traveler. The owners are the K Partners Hospitality Group of San Antonio, Texas.

Housing Market:

On April 11th, Anaverde LLC announced they would be breaking ground on their first homes on May 8th. Anaverde LLC is a joint venture between KB Homes and Empire Land. The Anaverde development is located at 20th West & Ave S, and will eventually encompass over 5,000 homes, 3 schools, 30 acres of commercial developments, and hiking and biking trails. The first group of homes will number around 441 and will be built in phases. Ave S will be widened to 6 lanes and include a 14 ft landscaped median. Lot sizes on the first group of homes will be 4,500, 5,000, and 7,000 sq feet, with prices ranging from $150,000 to $340,000. In later phases, homes on lots as large as 27,000 sq feet will be offered.
Demographers say that census data indicates that Californians are moving farther and farther away from the coast to more affordable inland communities.
Gretchen Gutierrez, President of the AV chapter of the Building Industry Association, says that "homes are being bought as fast as they can be built." In Feb of 2003, vs. Feb 2002, Lancaster saw home prices increase, in 4 different zip codes, from 14% to 31.8%. Palmdale, also in 4 different zip codes, saw median price increases of 2.6% to 25.7% in Feb of 2003 vs. Feb 2002. The Sacramento Regional Research Institute says that the housing industry contributes $257B a year to the state's economy, generates 821,000 jobs, and accounts for about 13% of all economic activity in the state. The SRRI also says that Cal is currently building 132,000 new homes per year, but the annual demand for new housing is 230,000 per year.
As of April 13th, 513 new homes had been sold in the AV. This is a run rate of 1,817 new homes for 2003. In 2002, the new home market sold 1,162 units.
Land Market:
Supply closed out April at 1,780 active land listings, down just 1.5% from the previous month. Even though we have the strongest land sales in 13 years, supply is not being drawn down dramatically. This tells me, that although this market is strong, it is not over-heated nor has it entered a speculative phase. In May of 1989, at the top of the last Bull Market, supply had fallen to 567. Supply has been in the 1,700 to 1,800-range since Feb of 2002. New sellers are stepping up almost as fast as property goes into escrow. But, sellers also know that time is now on their side, as this market has transitioned from a buyer's market to a seller's market. This is evidenced by the fact that my phone is not ringing off the hook with sellers wanting to sell. Right now, landowners like "the ride". That aside, if you have a compelling reason to sell, you should do so. As many found out in the 1990's, trying to sell land according to the seller's schedule, versus the market's schedule, does not work well. Profitable positions should be sold when the market is good; you can always figure out later what to do with the proceeds. "But I don't need the money" is never a reason not to sell. I heard that phrase a 1,000 times in 1988-90 market. When the market rolled over later that decade, every one of those sellers regretted not having sold when the market was strong. Relying on the land market to be good when you need the money, rarely, if ever, works out well for the seller.

Demand: April produced a very strong 104 land sales. April was the strongest month of land sales since I have been tracking this statistic, circa 1991. Since that 1991 period, Feb, March, and April of this year have been the 3 strongest months. Land sales have strong momentum. Land sales in April of this year are up 79% vs. April of 2002. Year over year, after the first 4 months of each year, land sales volume in 2003 is 110% higher vs. 2002. The strong housing market of the AV is raising our profile and bringing in new investors. Broker solicitations from outside of the AV are also increasing. Using the strong volume increase we had in April of 2002, as the kickoff of this land market cycle, this market cycle is one year old.

Summary/Forecast:
Investment risk taking has gone from the stock market to real estate. Real Estate has replaced the stock market as the asset class of choice. Residential acreage is still the hottest sector of our market, which is being driven by new home development. Investors are beginning to take a look at industrial type investor parcels. There is value in our market, but it is not standing on the nearest street corner holding up a sign. It takes careful work and patience to properly place money in our market. It is not enough just to find a parcel in a good area, and then throw money at it. Location and price must be taken into consideration together. For those that think otherwise, there is an old saying, "A fool and his money are soon parted."

Because land is bought and sold without institutional money, there are no appraisals that regulate prices paid. The price paid is strictly between the buyer and seller, and their brokers. The market inefficiencies in land, that are absent from other type of real estate investing, create dynamic profit opportunities that far exceed investing in improved property. In land, as in other types of investing, the more you know, the better your chances of success.

- Frank Donato, May/2003
Information presented above has been compiled from reputable sources, and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. All opinions expressed are those of the Author.
June 2003 - AV News Briefs:

The State Dept of Finance has released revised population numbers for both Palmdale and Lancaster. As of 1-1-03, Palmdale's population is 127,225, up 2.8% from a year ago; and Lancaster's is 126,052, up 2.4%. Palmdale's faster growth rate is attributed to its closer proximity to jobs in the Los Angeles and San Fernando Valley areas.
DreamWorks, a movie studio headed by Steven Spielberg, has signed a lease agreement with Los Angeles World Airports to lease the old SR Technic’s hanger, site 9 at Plant 42. The lease is $250,000 for the first 7 months, with an option of 3 more months at $35,700. DreamWorks will shoot a movie there staring Tom Hanks, and maybe Catherine Zeta-Jones. The 1M sq ft hanger is no stranger to movie shoots. The movie Hard Rain was filmed there in 1998 and had a $22M impact on the AV. Before merging with Boeing, Rockwell International built the B-1 Bomber in this hanger.
Delta Scientific, a maker of security barricades, has broken ground in west Palmdale at the Fairway Business Park, on Ave O, east of 10th St West. Delta, which now operates out of Valencia with 250 employees, is building a new 125,000 sq ft facility on 8.7 acres. Since 9-11, as one would expect, Delta's business as grown tremendously. Delta's barricades are used by govts. and businesses all over the world. The private company does $30M a year in business. Delta hopes to be up and running within 1 year.

Amargosa Commons, a 17-acre commercial shopping center under development on 10th St West, south of Ave Rancho Vista Blvd, will be reimbursed by the City of Palmdale for the $920,000 of street improvements they do to 10th St West. On May 7th, Trader Joe's, a specialty grocery store, announced they would lease 12,000 sq feet of space in the Amargosa Commons commercial center. Amargosa Commons is presently under construction on 10th St West, south of Rancho Vista Blvd, across the street from Best Buy. Trader Joe's officials said they were drawn to Palmdale by its favorable purchasing power in the immediate area.

Antelope Valley Mall owner, Forest City, says that Robinson-May is making strong overtures to come to the AV Mall. Talks with Robinson-May "are in the infant stage, with nothing tangible yet, but there's no doubt they want to come to Palmdale.”
John Musick, current owner of Ritter Ranch, has asked federal bankruptcy judge Geraldine Mund, to determine, in regard to Ritter Ranch, who is a legal creditor and how much they are owed. Musick wants to include this compiled list of creditors in his new reorganization plan, a plan that Mund will review, and must approve (Musick hopes), before Ritter Ranch can proceed.
The Lancaster Planning Commission has given Centura Investments Inc., of Nevada, conditional approval for the construction of a gated community on 120 acres at 90th St West & Ave I. The project would be located at the SW & NE corners of this 90th W & I. At a total of 425 single-family homes, the lot sizes would vary from 7,000 to 14,000 sq feet, with the majority of them being 7,500. The developers are hopeful that Del Sur Ranch, at about 80th W & I, will also develop, which would bring the water and sewer closer. Presently, water and sewer are at 60th St West, 3 miles to the east. Del Sur Ranch, by the Larwin Co., as it is planned now, will have 2,700 homes. Centura Investments, with their tentative map approved, will now try and sell it to a homebuilder.
The City of Lancaster has begun construction on Forrest E. Hull Park, located on 30th St West, at Ave L-12, just north of Ave M. The ten acres will be a "passive park", meaning lots of trees, shrubs, grassy areas, but no sports fields.
The City of Palmdale has directed its staff to explore what it will take to become an "inland port" for the Port of Long Beach, and perhaps Los Angeles too. Long Beach is rapidly outgrowing its capacity. To become an "inland port", the city would need 200 to 450 acres with rail access. To operate such a port, the City would have to pay the federal govt. the cost of establishing and operating a new US customs station. A custom’s station would oversee the entry and exit of carrier vehicles, examine arriving goods, collect duties, and enforce federal commerce laws. Many feel that an "inland port" would help jumpstart cargo air traffic on the now closed, but remodeled, Palmdale Regional Airport, located at 23rd East & Ave O-8.

Housing Market:

Housing demographics support the case that this housing market can continue for quite some time. Currently, California builds approx 132,000 per year, but demand is gauged at 230,000 new units per year. Forecast Homes, a local AV homebuilder, has the NE corner of 60th W and Ave K under contract. The 62-acre site will yield approx 200 homes. On May 8th, as scheduled, KB Homes & Empire Land broke ground their west Palmdale master-planned community called Anaverde. The first leg of the project will exceed 400 homes, with models to open within one year. Anaverde is located in the area of 20th St West & Ave S, and will include residential of varying density, schools, and 30 acres of commercial developments.
In what can only be viewed as a by-product of a strong housing market, home appraisals, in some instances, are not keeping up with what buyers are willing to pay. Some appraisals are coming in below the sales price. Appraisers say they are having trouble justifying some of the sales prices, forcing one of three options: either the buyer has to come up with the difference; the seller reduces the price, or a little bit of both. In a strong market, as we have now, usually the buyer is the one coming up with the difference.
Gretchen Gutierrez, of the AV chapter of the Building Industry Association, says that the AV has almost 50 new housing projects that are in various stages of development. Some have broken ground; some are still being mapped and have yet to start construction. New home prices range from the upper $100,000's to over $400,000.
David Meyers of the Greater AV Economic Alliance says of our housing market, "There is no place else to build in LA County. Palmdale and Lancaster are ripe for housing."
The New Housing Monitor reports, that as of May 18th, year to date, new home sales in the AV stood at 642. This is annualized rate of 1,697 homes.
Land Market:
Desert Rose, a group of 60 + one-acre home sites (lots, not homes) have far exceeded the developer’s time frame to sell out. The project is only one year old, and only a few lots remain. The developers had originally set a goal to sell them out within 3 years. The remaining lots begin in the mid to high $80,000 range, and go into the $90k's. Soon, very soon, upscale home sites for the larger custom home, are going to be very scarce. Godde Hill has only 2 or 3 left. Los Hermanos lots, for the most part, are in strong hands that are in no hurry to sell. Godde Terrace Estates at 65th W & M-8 will build out this cycle. Desert Rose and Equestrian Estates (40th W & N) are the two areas, suitable for custom homes that have the most supply. Equestrian Estates home sites, 1.25 ac to 1.36 ac, have also sold out. All of the Equestrian Estates lots are now in the hands of individual private parties.

Supply: May closed out at 1,780, literally unchanged from April. New supply is keeping up with demand. Higher prices will always help to bring new supply into any market. With supply and demand at equilibrium, or at least what appears to be such, we are nowhere near the speculative phase of this cycle. Historically, when the market gets over-heated and frothy, we will see demand overwhelms supply and draw it down substantially. Right now, we are not seeing anything that resembles that.

Demand: May (108) gave us another strong month of land sales. Investor interest in the growth of the AV continues to build. This was the third month in a row of land sales totaling over 100. If February of this year could have given us 2 more sales, May would have been the 4th month in a row of 100 + land sales. Remember, February only has 28 days. To demonstrate just how far this market has come, in late 2000, we were struggling just to do 20 land sales per month. For most of 2001, 40 sales per month was a tough barrier to break through, only surpassing it 3 times. In 2002, ten months exceeded 40 sales, 7 different months exceeded 50 sales, and 5 months exceeded 60 land sales per month. In all of 2002, our MLS had 679 land pendings. In 2003, albeit only after 5 months, we are on a sales pace of 1,147 land sales. After 5 months of 2003, we are now averaging 95 land sales per month. The first 6 days of June has produced 37 land sales, so it looks like we will break 100 again without too much trouble. Need I say more about the trend of this market?
Summary/Forecast:

The housing market remains strong; with many agents telling me that "resale" supply is tight, making it hard to find the home their buyer wants. Land investors, as they always do, have followed the homebuilders, and are taking positions in our market in numbers not seen since 1990. The AV is now in the midst of a major growth spurt that will probably last several more years. Some of the homebuilders have major positions in master-planned type projects, which will take years to build out. This means that huge sums of money have made long term commitments to the AV. The one question I get asked the most, is, "How long can this strong housing market last?" It is my own belief, based on historical data, that one more year is a certainty, and two more years a probability. Beyond that, ask me when we get there. The growth story of the AV is as compelling today as it has ever been.

- Frank Donato, June/2003
Information presented above has been compiled from reputable sources, and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. All opinions expressed are those of the Author.